Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 222.070434 268.553833 325.592459 401.854407 502.895440 6.347566e+02 8.243129e+02
2025-08-10 165.718908 218.549648 291.491759 403.226400 577.176036 8.511996e+02 1.347123e+03
2025-08-17 132.416304 184.771164 262.981778 394.807464 626.262381 1.050177e+03 1.989507e+03
2025-08-24 110.494083 160.696419 240.236270 384.611936 664.059147 1.246616e+03 2.806041e+03
2025-08-31 94.745729 142.328821 221.323736 373.660545 693.936671 1.443352e+03 3.850761e+03
2025-09-07 89.302580 139.197893 226.627332 407.820005 829.738258 1.977528e+03 6.764308e+03
2025-09-14 80.981902 129.595761 218.168747 411.809084 899.622560 2.399934e+03 1.032060e+04
2025-09-21 75.258925 123.558652 214.998544 425.942130 1002.606714 3.031199e+03 1.730967e+04
2025-09-28 68.802275 115.177808 205.598339 423.163066 1058.527009 3.563909e+03 2.676416e+04
2025-10-05 66.915850 115.072028 212.903573 462.874637 1267.536033 5.061167e+03 6.308121e+04
2025-10-12 64.486911 113.515111 216.780726 495.296579 1477.338071 7.018822e+03 1.663173e+05
2025-10-19 61.684540 110.793527 217.538908 519.653466 1678.392719 9.494628e+03 5.228522e+05
2025-10-26 58.258631 106.552762 214.567551 534.201982 1862.799293 1.263057e+04 2.426571e+06
2025-11-02 54.592320 101.364920 208.514781 537.889529 2007.490085 1.617834e+04 2.308417e+07
2025-11-09 50.594425 94.989516 198.512947 525.958818 2068.841846 1.922477e+04 1.507859e+09
2025-11-16 46.933144 88.961839 188.484598 511.250279 2108.115877 2.242461e+04 NaN
2025-11-23 43.635897 83.408829 178.874679 495.458119 2132.645051 2.582522e+04 NaN
2025-11-30 43.247348 84.395443 186.544765 544.907817 2625.178309 4.622634e+04 NaN
2025-12-07 41.228129 81.377417 182.928084 550.714139 2835.513855 6.402059e+04 NaN
2025-12-14 39.861541 79.752937 182.932486 571.336700 3198.014278 1.023118e+05 NaN
2025-12-21 37.841714 76.358513 177.399451 567.275231 3355.510604 1.387967e+05 NaN
2025-12-28 37.707420 77.538980 185.383544 625.600466 4218.616519 3.593173e+05 NaN
2026-01-04 37.189653 77.707789 190.414769 673.666431 5127.511165 1.047258e+06 NaN